Caps, Cuts and Implosion: The ACA’s Shaky Future
From 2010-2014, Medicaid saw a 5.2% funding increase across the U.S. as a whole—but proposed lifetime caps could cause such expansion to plateau. “The reason caps are bad for children is because they limit the money that can be spent on Medicaid for each patient,” says Diasio. “This limits the increase in spending over time at a lower rate than Medicaid has historically increased spending, so there will be a net cut over time. Since the federal government can print money and the states can’t, the states will then have to raise taxes to provide the same level of Medicaid benefits, which most people think is unlikely.” Lifetime spending limits, also referred to as per capita caps, depend on the states’ contributions to Medicaid. With a spending cap, a child with a chronic illness or medically complex condition could suddenly lose coverage if they hit their lifetime limit. A child with cancer could be left uninsured.
Might it be more equitable to distribute funding per capita? Diasio explains: “Per capita caps may sound good, but let’s say you’re in a state that’s currently low-spending and efficient—you lose. Congratulations, you’ve done a good job, you’ll only get x amount per member. What if your state is overspending? You’re now fixed at that cap. Caps punish the states who are doing a good job.
Diasio continues, “Let’s say you’re in a state with a low per capita cap, and a miraculous drug comes out that improves outcomes for Cystic Fibrosis, but a patient who takes the drug will hit the spending cap as a result… what’re you going to do now? Do we just let these patients suffer? The per cap limit creates real problems for children.”
What about other kinds of proposed caps, such as block granting by state? “Block granting is even worse,” says Diasio. “The federal government would just drop a pile of money in each state capitol and say ‘Figure it out.’ The rules that are written on how states can use block grants are so lax that there are some analysts who think it could be used for building football stadiums and roads instead.” This concern is echoed by other healthcare experts. Elisabeth Wright Burbak of the Georgetown University Health Policy Institute writes, “Block grant proponents tout additional flexibility for states. In reality, a block grant ties state officials’ hands when Medicaid is needed the most: during economic downturns or unexpected population or health challenges that create additional need.”
Even if lifetime caps aren’t written into law, limits and cuts that may occur if the administration makes good on its promise to “let Obamacare implode,” would be devastating for children. Even if the ACA continues to stand as the nation’s official health care policy, the funding it allocates could dry up. Dr. Diasio explains: “The left-wing dream is Medicare for all. What actually passed [in the ACA] was a right-of-center plan. It’s all about the subsidies that the federal government pays the insurers. Letting the ACA die means that the federal government would stop making those payments. How long will insurers agree to let themselves hemorrhage if they don’t know whether they’re going to get paid?”
President Trump could sabotage the ACA by directing his staff to simply stop making payments to insurers. While the legality of this tactic is of course questionable, by the time such an issue makes it to court millions of people would have lost coverage. Such a move would, in Diasio’s words, “blow up the insurance market so quickly that the consequences of that decision would come back to the Trump administration immediately. It would be basically political suicide for them to do that.” However, it would appear that this catastrophic explosion may be imminent, with potential “political suicide” seemingly irrelevant those who would suffer it. In the final month of 2017, the Trump administration significantly decreased funding to organizations that assist with ACA enrollment (or “navigator” groups), and slashed the ACA’s advertising budget by 90%. This move will present serious roadblocks to obtaining insurance for the 2018 ACA enrollment period. “In total, funding for navigators will be reduced from $62.5 million for the 2017 enrollment to $36.8 million—a 41 percent drop,” reports Amy Goldstein of the Washington Post.
Continuing on the subject of funding cuts, Dr. Diasio argues, “Unless people wish for this to be Sparta, where we take the disabled children and leave them outside to die, we need Medicaid. But I think most people would agree that the Sparta position is well outside anything we’d wish for ourselves or our family members.”
Diasio offers the example of mother and nurse Ali Ranger, who advocated for Medicaid on social media by sharing the story of her three-year-old son, Ethan. Ranger discovered during her pregnancy that her son would be born with heterotaxy, a rare birth defect that required him to have multiple open heart surgeries and spend countless hours in the OR and CICU. For the most part, Ethan’s exorbitantly expensive medical bills have been covered by insurance. If lifetime caps were instated, it would be impossible for Ranger to meet her son’s complex health needs; just one of his surgeries costs a quarter of a million dollars. Ranger tweeted, “Without insurance we would owe $231,115 for 10 hours in the OR, 1 week in the CICU and 1 week on the cardiac floor… Nearly a quarter million dollars for one surgery. Reinstate lifetime caps and he’s out.” She continues, “Look my son in the eyes and tell him that he’s fought so hard to be here but sorry, you’re just not worth it anymore. I dare you.”
Children with rare conditions like Ethan’s may not be eligible for coverage under a new health care plan, as language around pre-existing conditions is still murky at best. In the AAP’s statement opposing the June iteration of the Senate Health Care Bill, then-acting President Dr. Fernando Stein addresses the plight of children with exceptional needs: “A ‘carve-out’ for some children determined to be ‘disabled’ does little to protect their coverage when the base program providing the coverage is stripped of its funding. Doing so forces states to chip away coverage in other ways, by not covering children living in poverty who do not have complex health conditions, or by scaling back the benefits that children and their families depend on.”
“The names of federal health care programs are themselves politicized. Medicare versus Medicaid: we care about old people but we aid poor people. It’s sort of a mnemonic value that undercuts assisting the poor.”Dr. Christoph Diasio
Dr. Stein’s comment draws attention to political semantics in the health care debate. Nonspecific promises, such as “carve-outs” and “protections,” can leave the general public confused or misinformed. In an interview with the New York Times, Andy Slavitt, former head of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) under President Obama, comments, “Americans of all political stripes are getting exposed to both how challenging this is and how many layers of complexity the private-sector solutions bring to [health care.] There is a strong sentiment—even if it’s not a political one—to just simplify it.” This prevailing sentiment may ring all the more true as misinformation regarding the health care market makes its way through our political discourse.
“Medicaid is exploited in politics,” says Diasio. “The names of federal health care programs are themselves politicized. Medicare versus Medicaid: we care about old people but we aid poor people. It’s sort of a mnemonic value that undercuts assisting the poor. The public is told that folks on Medicaid are lazy people ‘living off the dole.’ Maybe those patients exist, but they’re not my patients. The vast plurality of people on Medicaid are hardworking people who have jobs that don’t pay much. Many parents of my Medicaid patients work two or three jobs to make ends meet, and they still qualify for Medicaid.” Walmart stores present a case study that proves the massive importance of Medicaid for low-wage workers. According to a 2014 report from Americans for Tax Fairness, Walmart employees nationwide required an estimated $6.2 billion in public assistance funds, including Medicaid, SNAP benefits, and subsidized housing. The average Walmart employee earns a maximum of $13 per hour. Add a sick child to the equation, and Medicaid becomes indispensable.